Some Bird-Flu Reassurance

The threat of a pandemic like 1918's had been widely touted, on this blog among others.

Here's an analysis that's a bit reassuring. Basically, the idea is that flu viruses evolve very quickly, and unless there are crowded conditions in the host population (as in the trenches in World War I, or modern chicken ranches, a virus that kills its host too quickly and too often is likely to die out, in favor of strains that let the host fly or walk around and infect other hosts.

So absent really crowded conditions, a highly lethal strain would only last for awhile. Evolution favors strains that stay in their hosts longer and don't kill them.

A hopeful thought. Bears thinking about.