November 7, 2006

Nagourney Hedges His Bets

Adam Nagourney is the Gray Lady's political reporter. He always seems to see things in the best light for the Dems.

This morning, he hedges his bets, asking what happens if the Dems don't take over the House and Senate, and suggesting gains would constitute a kind of victory, in spite of the disappointment among the donkeys.

For a combination of reasons — increasingly bullish prognostications by independent handicappers, galloping optimism by Democratic leaders and bloggers, and polls that promise a Democratic blowout — expectations for the party have soared into the stratosphere. Democrats are widely expected to take the House, and by a significant margin, and perhaps the Senate as well, while capturing a majority of governorships and legislatures.

These expectations may well be overheated. Polls over the weekend suggested that the contest was tightening, and some prognosticators on Monday were scaling back their predictions, if ever so slightly. (Charlie Cook, the analyst who is one of Washington’s chief setters of expectations, said in an e-mail message on Monday that he was dropping the words “possibly more” from his House prediction of “20-35, possibly more.”)

Perhaps he does see something. There's been a tightening in the polls.

I still think we'll see a Speaker Pelosi, but a narrrow GOP hold in the Senate.

Start plucking them crows. Somebody's gonna be barbecuing 'em.

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