Gaza Needs a Lee Kwan Yew

The Israelis have all but completed their withdrawal from Gaza, ridding themselves of a headache and putting the Palestinians to the test of whether they can run a government, even in an area comparable to New York City.

Looking around the world, Gaza is comparable to Singapore. Gaza is 360 sq km; Singapore has 693 sq km. Gaza has about 1.4 million people; Singapore has about 4.4 million. Both are coastal territories with strategic locations.

Singapore was occupied by the Japanese in World War II; Gaza has undergone a longer and more recent occupation by Israel.

The question for Gaza, and the region, is whether Gaza (alone or with the West Bank) is to be a viable, successful society like Singapore, or as seems more and more likely, a "failed state" where contending bands of gangsters contend for power, but no one consolidates it.

For many years, Singapore was ruled by an authoritarian leader, Lee Kwan Yew, a Hakka Chinese who imposed social discipline and followed policies that have made Singapore an economic success story. Singapore's GDP per capita is just under $40,000 per year; Gaza's is a mere $448 per capita, which includes dollops of foreign aid. This is less than a tenth of Albania's GDP per capita. The aid will dry up if order is not established. For comparison, Israel's GDP per capita is about $20,000.

If Gaza is not to become a basket case, therefore, its first goal must be to establish order, and the second to adopt policies that will promote economic growth. The establishment of order seems increasingly dicey, as internecine assassinations, such as that of Moussa Arafat, armed occupations of government buildings, and the continued glorification of violence remain signs of disorder.

What Gaza needs is a Lee Kwan Yew. An authoritarian committed to social discipline and economic growth, something quite different from the ordinary clientilist Middle Eastern dictator, who will loot what's left of the economy and not create the conditions for economic growth. Perhaps under such auspices, a form of the rule of law and democracy can emerge. Whether such a figure is likely to arise is questionable. If he doesn't, and order is not established, the world will turn its back on Gaza, just as the Arab countries have long since done in everything but rhetoric.

Whether such a figure, or a movement supporting one, can emerge, is questionable. If continued low-intensity warfare against Israel remains the preoccupation, and politics is otherwise limited to dividing up a tiny pie, nothing good will happen.

With such a man, Gaza could become another Singapore, or at least another Lebanon, a small, enterprising center for trade, services and manufacturing. Because of the intifidas, Gaza can no longer look to Israel as a market for its labor. If it is to avoid becoming another failed state, it must find within itself (using the aid which may come), possibilities for growth.