March 3, 2008

Has Obama Peaked?

There's a slight downtick in Obama's narrow lead on the RealClearPolitics poll average in Texas, and Hillary has remained consistently 5-6% ahead in Ohio.

Is it possible that he's peaked, and people who aren't rabid fans are having second thoughts?

I do think Obama carries Texas narrowly, and wins the delegate count there when that comes out, but Hillary holds Ohio. Blue-collar RI will go Hillary and BoBo Vt. for Obama.

That leaves NC, where Obama is favored, and Pennsylvania, where Hillary's about 9 points ahead. Unless she loses both Texas and Ohio, Hillary soldiers on. A donnybrook at the convention, especially if there's a credentials fight over Florida and Michigan, will leave the Dems poorly set up for the general.

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