With the polls so close -- within the margin of errors, some have suggested that the number of potential voters who don't have land lines and have adoped mobile phones, and never get pollster calls -- is big enough to skew the polls substantially. A discussion by Mystery Pollster suggests the answer may be "not yet."
Here's a list of possible error factors in political polling this year:
- Unreached mobile phone users.
- People with caller ID who screen their calls.
- People who won't talk to pollsters -- a growing number, I'll bet.
- Unlikely voters who may unexpectedly show up this year:
- Karl Rove's 4 million evangelicals.
- Everybody else who votes because of the great interest of this watershed campaign.
- Possibly depressed turnout:
- Among blacks because Kerry hasn't connected with them.
- Among a rainbow of Floridians who are who knows where because of the hurricanes.
Bottom line: likely cliffhanger. Bring on the litigators!