November 4, 2004

I Crow a Little

My pre-election prediction:

If I had to guess, at this point, I'd say Bush 49-48, and in the EC, 281-257. That's close. The GOP will pick up a few Senate seats, enough so that Lincoln Chaffee can't be the next Jeffords, and a net gain in the House.

A little low on the popular vote -- Nader and Badarnik didn't do so well -- and within 2 points on the electoral. Right on as to Congress.

Better than Zogby, fer sure. And he does it for a living.

Here's Z's mea culpa--or weasel-words:

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:

“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."

More candid than Rather on the documents, anyway.

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