News reports suggest that Oscar Temaru, leader of the pro-independence (but not right away) coalition may cobble together enough votes to secure a majority sufficient to depose Chirac crony Gaston Flosse.
Flosse had deprived Temaru of a surprise electoral victory last year, by maneuvering a vote switch in the Assembly. The French bureaucracy ordered a revote in the central part of the archipelago.
Temaru's group won a plurality and a resultant bonus number of deputies. Now, deputy Patricia Jennings has offered her support to Temaru, and two other swing votes appear ready to support Flosse's removal.
We shall see. France and Flosse pull a lot of strings, and Flosse is wily and tenacious.
More discussion in this excellent blog.